Business Impact Forecasting

Problem

Brexit’s impact on the travel industry was undoubted but quantifying it is a highly complex problem. With Propellernet’s specialisation in travel, an understanding of how the market would react to different brexit scenarios was essential to guide their strategic planning.

Impact

By modeling the impact of the brexit referendum result, we were able to understand how consumers react to unexpected results and in assuming that this reaction would be similar to the reaction to a no-deal announcement we were able to estimate how both the short and the long term buying patterns would play out.

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Method

Using interrupted time series (ITS) modelling, confidence intervals and forward variance could be understood to an actionable level that could both be used in qualitative creative planning when in quantitative financial scheduling.